Banker To Banker

Bank Forecasting

Given that it is forecasting time again for next year’s budget, banks often use a variety of economic indicators to help forecast demand for credit, liquidity, and inflation. Often time, we will see many of these indicators in ALCO reports or strategic plans. We have tried a great many indicators and have tracked the effectiveness of each one. Today, we will cover some of the more unreliable ones, while tomorrow we will cover the ones that work.

 

Predictive Data at Banks

While most banks understand the important data points when it comes to loans or deposits, most banks still could use help on collecting some of the basic information about their customers. The age of utilizing customer data to get predictive about risk, customer profitability and marketing is just beginning at banks so this is a new field for many. For example, a change in number of employees at your borrower is correlated to both credit risk and profitability.

Impact of Bank Budget Initiatives

Three years of kicking the can down the road, striking last minute deals for “Super Committees” and pointing fingers obviously wasn’t enough practice for Congress as our esteemed government is finally shut down.  You would think that, when faced with the two options of either cutting down on spending or raising revenues, Congress could have picked one, or at least implemented a combination of the two. Instead, our elected officials (who are still getting paid) decided to go with the age-old strategy of hyperpartisan malfeasance and do nothing.

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