Every year we update our projections on national retail tenants that show higher than average risk of shutting down or having financial problems that elevate probabilities of default in retail centers where banks have loans outstanding. Some of these are obvious and have been in the news for years.
Introduced in 1937 in an Oklahoma Humpty Dumpty supermarket, the shopping cart has proven to increase per person sales and extend shopping time. A boost to many retail establishments, it is often said to be a predictor of retail health. More shopping cart sales equals more store openings. The problem is that sales are slowing. This is germane to banks as commercial real estate exposure related to retail property financing composes an estimated 22% of community bank commercial real estate (to also include mixed use).
