Tag: Loss Given Default

The Hidden Risk in Commercial Lending

Managing credit risk - unexpected loss
MANAGING CREDIT RISK

Most risk managers are intimately familiar with the expected loss for credit and interest rate risk. However, fewer risk managers are familiar with the concept of unexpected loss.  For commercial banks, it is the unexpected loss that is more important for lending decisions and long-term profitability.  We will outline how unexpected loss manifests itself in lending decisions and what commercial lenders must know to safeguard against unexpected loss for credit and interest rate risk.

 

Rate Shocks, Property Value and Loss Relationship for Bank CRE Loans

Better Management of CRE Credit

When stress testing any given loan, there is a fine but correlated relationship between cash flow, property values, and expected losses. In this article, we gather our data and present a composite CRE benchmark in which to calibrate your bank’s model or expectations. At a minimum, this data will help your bank hone their credit shock assumptions and give you an idea on if you have adequate reserve levels at both the loan and loan portfolio level.

 

The Historical Mistake

 

Understanding Liquidation Timing To Limit Loan Losses

Bank Loan Loss Timing

When it comes to dealing with commercial property, understanding the timing of liquidation in relationship to a loan’s maturity and the time of default is important on several levels. Knowing the data allows banks to make better loan pricing and loan workout decisions. For example, loss severity is greater for loans with 75% loan-to-value (LTV) than with 100% LTV. This is counterintuitive but can be accounted for by understanding that bankers move faster to liquidate properties that have higher LTVs.

Community Bank Commercial Loan Default Rates – Current and Projections

Quantified Lending Risk

We analyzed default rates through 2015 for banks between $300mm and $3B in asset size.  Historical default rates were measured and analyzed for various loan categories for this bank set.  We also reviewed Moody’s Investor Services corporate default and recovery rates through 2015 and considered which industries may present opportunities for community banks from a yield/risk perspective and as a way to diversify from real estate concentrations. 

 

Why Smaller Loans Can Create More Risks For Banks

Loan Profitability

Most banks feel comfortable making smaller sized loans. The obvious reasoning is that a smaller loan will present less of a loss should it go into default - less of a loss means less risk, and, therefore, higher return.  That reasoning could be faulty and could end up getting your bank into trouble as often times it is the larger loan that presents less risk. There are three reasons for this. First, the acquisition cost of a larger loan is just slightly more from a dollar value perspective (and lower on a percentage basis) than that of a small loan.

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