While it is too soon to get the data on bank commercial real estate (CRE) portfolio delinquencies and forbearances, we take our benchmarks from the commercial mortgage-backed securities market as of May 14th. As any commercial banker can tell you, hospitality and retail remain under the most pressure, jumping up more than 5x and 3x, respectively. Office delinquencies are up 71%, month-over-month, industrial properties remain relatively unchanged while Other (self-storage, specialty, etc.) is up 3.5x.
Tag: Credit Risk
In past articles, we discussed a proposed Coronavirus stress test under CCAR (HERE) and provided our COVID-19 probabilities of default and loss given defaults for a model bank portfolio (HERE). In this article, we update our CRE modeling and take a deeper dive into loan-level analysis in order to help banks triage and manage both individual credits and their portfolio-level reserves.
The economic implications of coronavirus are expected to be widespread and are already causing some borrowers to be concerned about their ability to make loan payments. Many of our bank customers have used the ARC program to fix rates for borrowers while retaining a variable rate. Some of these borrowers in profoundly affected sectors, such as restaurants, hotels, and theaters, are now approaching the lending banks to discuss loan payment relief.
The Fed did more than cut rates on Sunday; they pumped a massive amount of liquidity in the system, sending a signal to banks to level up. Far behind the health of employees and customers in the COVID-19 pandemic, comes the economic impact. Unlike the recession of 2008, where the economic impact came over many months, this pandemic impacted businesses in weeks providing much less time to prepare and adjust. The result is likely to be bad for the economy and bad for banks. If your bank is treating this as businesses as usual, then you are putting your survival at risk.
If you are like most banks you have your credit approval and risk process based around loan size. The assumption is that the larger the loan the more risk the bank is taking on so a greater level of risk review is needed. But, suppose the data didn’t bear that assumption out? If that assumption is wrong, then that means that your bank is probably underpricing the smaller loans, overpricing the larger loans, applying the wrong cost structure to the larger loans and misaligning risk against your capital.
The last quarter in the year is typically a suboptimal time to generate commercial loans. Most bankers have met their annual goals factoring the existing pipeline of credits. Furthermore, banks that have not met their goals for the year are likely to price and structure more aggressively, thereby depressing profitable opportunities for more disciplined lenders.
Too many banks in the last financial crises fundamentally misunderstood or did not pay attention to structural subordination risk. We feel that this pattern is partially repeating at some banks today. Further, most banks overestimate the amount of credit support that can be recognized across corporate entities and individual sponsors, and this leads to misguided lending practices. We want to explain where banks can buttress their credit underwriting when dealing w
We are not sure when the first signs of a credit shock will appear, but it is coming. When it does, it will be the presence of commercial loan covenants that give banks a competitive advantage of using covenant violations to pressure borrowers so that banks can improve their risk position.
Sometimes how we choose to measure something can lead to incorrect conclusions. While mathematically 30 is 50% more than 20, a 30-year amortizing loan is not 50% riskier, or 50% longer than a 20-year amortizing loan. The amortization term is often a poor measure for bankers to use to make credit decisions. In this blog, we will explain why the amortization term can be a misleading measure, why bankers should be using average life, and we will provide readers with a downloadable average life excel calculator for bankers to use for their own analysis.