Next to C&I, commercial real estate ("CRE") loans have been one of the best performing asset classes for banks in 2014. Spreads continue to tighten on CRE and are expected to suck in another 8bp by year end making the future look bright. With banks coming up on their mid-year asset allocation review, all looks stable for the majority of bank asset classes with the exception of the difference between commercial real estate and residential mortgage holdings on bank’s balance sheet.
Tag: Credit Monitoring
What if there were a set of three easy to distinguish factors that, if all present, could predict the future performance of your customer and reduce the probability of default to half that of their respective industry? Would you do anything differently? Would you price lower? Would you extend more credit? Would you change your sales or marketing process at all to go after those accounts?
2013 property cash flows are starting to come in at many lenders and we have been taking a look at the data to see what insights can be gleaned that could give us an advantage. Combining bank data with data from the public markets, we can get a statistically valid sample size of over $130B worth of properties in almost all major metro and suburban markets (about 14% of the total CRE market). The below data may help banks when pricing and will give a clearer view of the risk profile when underwriting.
A look at 134 commercial real estate loans that were just sold last month with recent appraisals reveals some interesting data points for banks. The sale price was higher by about 10% than the appraised value. In looking at the details, appraisers placed a heavier weight on current capitalization rates versus investors that tend to look more forward. This begs the question – how accurate are commercial real estate appraisals and should banks be basing loan amounts on them?
Your floating rate loan portfolio may be ready to hurt you, and your bank might not be aware. Unlike fixed rate loans, floating rate loans tend not to have prepayment provisions. This part is well understood. What is far less understood is the fact that ANY material rate movement ends up hurting performance. While we have written about how interest rate risk and credit are interrelated, today we focus how rate movement causes unaware community banks to be adversely selected, thereby hurting performance.