Go to any Trader Joe's market and then go to a competing market, and you will be likely to find a significant difference. Trader Joe's has produced a COVID-19 response that is thoughtful, practical, relatively inexpensive, and caring.
There is now little doubt that the coronavirus will spread globally and will cause more supply and demand shocks in the market. While economic activity will slow, the amount and duration of the slowdown are big unknowns. Community banks may not have exposure to Chinese markets and may not have significant exposure to the energy sector.
A common line of thinking in the banking industry, especially regulators, is that recessions are driven by, or at least exacerbated by, the supply of credit. Banks, in an effort to stay competitive, tend to drop their lending standards to hit their loan growth targets. In doing so, these banks take on more and more risk. This occurs until the credit cycle turns, and then banks run into credit problems. However, what happens if banks are watching the wrong competitors? While surely recessions are a function of credit supply, maybe recessions have more to do with demand?
No doubt, you hear all about how your competitors are winning deals because they are more aggressive when it comes to underwriting. While banks must always ask if they are taking the right risks and the right amount of risk, it is probably the competitors that you are not watching that is causing you the greatest risk. In this short article, we explore one often overlooked aspect of competitor surveillance and how this one technique can help protect your bank.
Commercial lenders should be aware of the important factors that drive customer behavior to borrow funds. Our clients borrow from us when they refinance debt, or purchase equipment, real estate, or finance working capital. However, there are three key elements that make debt especially appealing for borrowers. Commercial lenders that understand these three elements can better position themselves for success.
The Three Key Elements to Borrower
In just a couple of months, the current economic expansion will be the longest in US history. Since the mid-19th century, the country has experienced 33 business cycles in all, with the average economic expansion lasting a little over three years, and the average recession lasting just under 1.5 years. The current expansion will, without a doubt, outlive the previous longest period of economic growth that occurred from 1991 to 2001. However, no one has
In addition to traditional underwriting, some banks utilize a scorecard to rank their commercial properties. Projects are run through a scorecard and then rated on a numerical value. For banks without a credit or pricing model that provides a probability of default and expected loss, the scorecard allows an intermediate way to compare loan quality. In this article, we take a look at a sample scorecard and give banks some examples of how to use the methodology for better commercial real estate (CRE) underwriting and pricing.
In one of our blogs last week, we discussed why real estate loans originated today at 1.20X DSCR and 75% LTV may quickly become substandard credits if cap rates normalize, interest rates rise to long-term averages, or NOI is stressed in an economic downturn. We argued that community banks should be favoring 1.50X DSCR credits, as that is the minimum cash flow required to withstand a standard recession. We also stated that lenders must incorporate a minimum debt yie
Many banks today are satisfied to underwrite real estate secured loans on just two metrics: debt-service-coverage ratio (DSCR) and loan-to-appraised value (LTV). Banks typically approve credits above 1.20X and below 75% LTV – with many loan-specific factors that may skew these acceptable levels either way. For competitive reasons, we see some banks who are dipping to 1.10X DSCR, and some deals are approved at 85% or even higher LTVs. However, in today’s business c
Home prices and trends are thought to be a leading indicator of bank credit, and so we pause to analyze what 2018 is telling us and how it could impact our future in the banking industry. December existing homes sales came in at 4.99 million units or below the 5.24 million units expected. That continued the trend of weaker demand in 2018. Luckily, we can correlate much of that drop in demand and pricing to higher interest rates and inflated home prices against a backdrop of flat income.