Many industry analysts are increasingly gloomy on the banking industry, trimming expectations for net interest margin, interest income, and total profits. With long-term interest rates declining within a whisker of the lowest level in history, many analysts are reducing their forecast of banking profits by up to 10% through 2020 or 2021.
In Part I, we highlighted how having too much information about a decision often increases the confidence about the decision but usually doesn’t change the accuracy of the decision. In addition, gathering information takes time and effort, so the result is a more expensive and time-consuming decision that gives you a false sense of comfort. While most banks use the basic seven step process outlined below, in Part II, we highlight two additional rules for the decisioning box that can help increase decision effectiveness.
Community banks face intense competition from different institutions and various industries. There is currently a market phenomenon that is creating an unusually challenging environment for community banks that compete for real estate financing. This phenomenon is creating an advantage for some lenders in the amount of seven to 42bps, and community banks must be aware of this aberration if they want to win more quality borrowers.
We are not sure when the first signs of a credit shock will appear, but it is coming. When it does, it will be the presence of commercial loan covenants that give banks a competitive advantage of using covenant violations to pressure borrowers so that banks can improve their risk position.
Put a rat in a maze, and they will speed up as they get near the end as can smell the reward. Forget rats, human sprinters also run the last 15% of a race faster than the previous 30%. Forget athletes, citizens make more donations to a charity as that charity gets closer to its fundraising goal. Forget citizens, bank customers also complete more new account applications, hit savings goals, and complete conversions if they can view a goal that is close.
It sometimes pays to be opportunistic in marketing your community bank’s products. There is currently an exceptional market opportunity for community banks to win profitable business from larger competitors. The recent decrease in interest rates presents an opening for smart bankers to poach good quality clients and lock them in as customers for a decade. Our bank recently did just that, and in this article, we would like to share this strategy through a case study.
Interest Rates Dip